Vegetable Spring Roll Peak Season Guide

　　Peak season sales bring opportunities but also risks including inventory shortages， production pressure， and customer loss. For short-shelf-life or frozen foods like vegetable spring rolls， scientific inventory forecasting is crucial to ensure supply， improve customer satisfaction， and maximize profits. This article provides a systematic inventory management methodology.

　　01 Establish Data-Driven Forecasting Models

　　Inventory management should never rely on guesswork but must use historical data and scientific methods.

　　Analyze Historical Sales Data

　　Review same-period data from past 2-3 years： Analyze weekly/daily sales during previous peak seasons （e.g.， holidays like Spring Festival， Christmas）， noting annual growth trends

　　Identify sales patterns： Find the “start date” when sales begin to rise， the “peak day（s）” with highest sales， and the “end date” when sales decline

　　Calculate year-on-year growth rate： Estimate this year‘s expected natural growth rate based on previous data

　　Set Safety Stock

　　Safety stock is buffer inventory to address unexpected demand or supply chain delays.

　　Calculation formula： Safety Stock = （Maximum Daily Sales × Maximum Lead Time） - （Average Daily Sales × Average Lead Time）

　　Apply Forecasting Formula

　　Estimated Inventory Required = （Forecasted Sales during the Period） + Safety Stock - Current Inventory

　　02 Consider External Factors Affecting Demand

　　Data is the foundation， but the market is dynamic. These variables must be considered to adjust forecasts.

　　Holidays and Promotional Activities

　　Specific promotional plans （e.g.， “buy one get one free，” discounts） significantly boost sales

　　Promotional increments must be included in forecasts， typically increasing sales by 30%-50%

　　Market Trends and Competitive Environment

　　Monitor current food trends， particularly plant-based and healthy light meals

　　Track competitors’ promotional activities and market movements

　　Weather and Seasonal Factors

　　Inclement weather may affect logistics and cause delivery delays

　　Unusual weather conditions can also impact consumer purchasing behavior

　　03 Supply Chain Collaboration Management

　　The most accurate forecasts require reliable supply chain execution.

　　Advance Communication of Demand Forecasts

　　Share sales forecasts with suppliers and production teams 4-6 weeks in advance

　　Ensure adequate supply of raw materials （spring roll wrappers， specific vegetables）

　　Confirm Capacity and Lead Times

　　Confirm maximum daily production capacity and cycle time with manufacturers

　　Confirm transportation times and delivery frequency with logistics providers

　　Develop Contingency Plans

　　Prepare backup supplier lists

　　Establish emergency procurement channels

　　Reserve 5%-10% capacity buffer

　　04 Dynamic Monitoring and Adjustment

　　Inventory forecasting requires continuous fine-tuning throughout the peak season.

　　Implement High-Frequency Inventory Checks

　　Conduct daily inventory checks during peak season

　　Compare actual vs. forecasted sales and make timely adjustments

　　Establish Early Warning System

　　Set inventory alert levels （e.g.， 3-day inventory supply）

　　Set up automatic reminder systems for timely replenishment

　　Maintain Team Communication

　　Hold daily production-sales coordination meetings

　　Timely sharing of sales data and inventory status

　　05 Recommended Practical Tools

　　Inventory Management Software

　　Recommended ERP systems like Kingdee， Yonyou

　　Or choose specialized inventory management software

　　Excel Forecasting Templates

　　Establish sales forecasting models

　　Set up automatic calculation formulas

　　Create visual dashboards

　　Summary： Five-Step Scientific Inventory Management

　　Data Collection： Organize historical sales data

　　Demand Forecasting： Use formulas to calculate base demand

　　Set Buffer： Establish safety stock based on supply chain situation

　　Advance Communication： Synchronize forecast plans with suppliers

　　Dynamic Monitoring： Daily data tracking and flexible adjustment

　　Using this methodology， you can transform vegetable spring roll inventory management from empirical decisions to scientific management， allowing you to navigate peak season with ease， avoiding both shortage losses and inventory overstock.